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What Flight MH370 Tells Us About the US in Asia 馬航370給美國提供了哪些機會?
What Flight MH370 Tells Us About the US in Asia 馬航370給美國提供了哪些機會?
楊恒均     阅读简体中文版

嫉惡如仇 從善如流
楊恒均微信號:yanghengjun2013

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編者按

美國THE DIPLOMAT網站2014年起推出楊恒均專欄,將楊恒均的部分博文翻譯成英文。本平臺將選登部分文章,供英語愛好者閱讀。


What Flight MH370 Tells Us About the US in Asia

In the wake of a terrible tragedy, the U.S. is proving why it is indispensable to the Asia-Pacific region.



By Yang Hengjun

March 21, 2014




It’s been over a week since Flight MH370 dropped out of contact, and it seems as though it has vanished off the face of the earth. At first, people in China were full of hope—they lit candles and prayed, hoping that the plane had simply gotten lost and would appear the next instant on radar or a small island. The Malaysian authorities hemmed and hawed, contradicting themselves in their remarks. Despite this, most of the Chinese people, who think the best of people, still consciously and stubbornly resisted the temptation of “conspiracy theories”—until the Malaysian prime minister, in a press conference, confirmed the same conjectures and “conspiracy theories” they had previously denied.


It seems increasingly likely that this incident was a terrorist hijacking! Malaysian officials even claimed that the plane may have already landed when it made contact with a satellite! The U.S. media pointed out that the plane’s flight was similar to tactical avoidance maneuvers. The son-in-law of Osama Bin Laden also revealed that a pilot once made plans to hijack an airplane… At present, the number of countries participating in the search has increased from 14 to 26. Malaysia has even begun to ask for the help from central Asian countries to look for the lost plane. The relatives of those aboard, who thought that plane must have suffered a grim fate, have renewed their hope. For them, understandably, a “terrorist hijacking” is not worse than a “fatal crash.”


In the MH370 incident, China may suffer the largest loss of life. Malaysia may run into an unexpected drop in tourism recession and financial problems. It is rare for a pilot to hijack a plane, and to create such a large incident is even rarer. This will fundamentally shake the world’s confidence in the reputation and national governance of Malaysia. Vietnam’s efforts seem to have been in vain and the neighboring countries are still in shock. Only the United States, with its indisputable soft and hard power, uses the incident of Flight 370 to wordlessly announce: I have returned to Asia!


If an air crash occurs in the Americas, the United States would be the unquestioned leader of an investigation. If such an incident happened in Europe, both France and the UK have considerable strength, and the U.S. would also rush to assist. If in Africa, the U.S., UK, Germany and France would rush to the rescue. But what about Asia? Which country should Malaysia have turned to in the first moment to seek help? In the past twelve days spent searching for both the plane and the truth, the U.S. has not only shown itself as alone in possessing the most sophisticated search and rescue technology, but has also displayed advanced human intelligence that far surpasses that of all other countries in this region. Didn’t all of the information finally confirmed as correct come from the U.S. media and “relevant persons” in America?


There are three pillars for the U.S. to return to Asia. First, to strengthen alliance relationships such as those between the U.S. and Japan, South Korea and Australia. Second, to effectively manage relations with China, which is the so-called “new type great power relations.” Third, to use American soft and hard power to demonstrate its irreplaceable role in the Asia-Pacific region. The MH370 incident thus provides a rare opportunity for America.


As a terrorist hijacking of Flight 370 seems more and more likely, the U.S. shows the Asian countries that terrorist attacks like 9-11 are not far removed from Asia. If this incident turns out to have been caused by terrorists, it will be the largest terrorist attack that China has suffered from at the international level and would be similar to the United States’ experience of 9-11. The U.S. has repeatedly asked Asian countries (especially in those Southeast Asia) for their understanding and support of its anti-terrorist efforts in Afghanistan, but the responses have been lukewarm. In the future, could this situation change?


In a few days, the Nuclear Security Summit will take place in the Netherlands. The Nuclear Security Summit, launched by the rather apologetic Nobel Peace Prize winner Barack Obama, is a global summit that aims to advocate for nuclear safety and fight against nuclear terrorism. The first summit in 2010 was held in Washington, with its main goal to strengthen international cooperation to respond to the threat of nuclear terrorism.” But the summit became a negotiation between the U.S. and Russia about reducing nuclear weapons and ended fruitlessly. In 2012, the theme of the second nuclear summit held in Seoul, South Korea, was to improve the security of nuclear materials and nuclear facilities, but Japan successfully changed the topic and made participating countries pay more attention to the North Korean nuclear threat. Both of these summits attracted the attendance of heavyweight leaders such as the Chinese president, had high standards, and saw much activity, but looking back, it’s hard to see what the results were.


The third Nuclear Security Summit will be held next seek in The Hague from March 24 to 25, 2014. There will be 53 countries, 4 international organizations, 58 leaders and thousands of delegates and reporters attending the summit. The main goal of this international summit is to prevent nuclear terrorism on a global scale. If terrorists get a hold of knives, they can kill people; they can remorselessly turn a plane into a weapon. It is not hard to imagine what the result would be if they obtain nuclear materials or weapons. If only for this reason, this session of summit cannot and should not be an ineffective high-level show, where top leaders merely get together and shake hands. It’s an opportunity for the Nuclear Security Summit and a chance for Obama to use this platform to establish his legacy.


The MH370 incident is still ambiguous and the truth has not been revealed to the world. The priority is to search for the plane, rescue the victims and find the truth — not to make up “conspiracy theories” about the United States. But when disaster strikes, it’s easier to see the extent of national power and the chess matches among each country. China should learn from this and realize that terrorism is not limited to the Middle East, Europe and New York. It has already come close to China, and even taken place within Chinese territory. Moreover, the rise of a great power doesn’t mean a huge army with even more massive military spending. Rather, it means practical, high-tech military technology and advanced equipment. Finally, a responsible big power must be deeply involved in regional and international affairs, to make the world feel the significance and necessity of its existence.


This piece srcly appeared in Chinese on Yang Hengjun’s blog. The src post can be found here.

Yang Hengjun is a Chinese independent scholar, novelist, and blogger. He once worked in the Chinese Foreign Ministry and as a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington, DC. Yang received his Ph.D. from the University of Technology, Sydney in Australia. His Chinese language blog is featured on major Chinese current affairs and international relations portals and his pieces receive millions of hits each day. Yang’s blog can be accessed at www.yanghengjun.com


原文:


馬航370給美國提供了哪些機會?


文 | 楊恒均


馬航370失聯超過八天,好像人間蒸發一樣。一開始,中國人都懷著良好的愿望,點蠟燭、祈福,希望飛機只不過是迷路了,下一刻鐘就會突然出現在雷達上,或某個小島上。馬國當局雖一直支支吾吾、前言不搭后語,但與人為善的中國人大多仍然在自覺而頑固地抵制“陰謀論”的誘惑,直到馬國總理記者會上一個一個地肯定了他們之前否定的那些猜測,還有那些“陰謀論”。


恐怖劫機的可能性越來越大!今天馬方甚至爆出猛料:飛機與衛星聯系時可能已降落!美媒則指出:客機曾做戰術躲避動作,而拉登的女婿也跳了出來,放風說一名飛行員曾策劃劫機……目前參與搜尋的國家數目也從14個增加到25個。馬國甚至開始請求中亞國家幫助尋找失聯飛機。原本以為這架飛機兇多吉少的親屬反而重燃希望,要知道,“恐怖劫機”,并不比“機毀人亡”更恐怖。


馬航370事件,中國可能遭受最多的生命損失;馬來西亞恐怕會遭遇無法想像的旅游衰退與經濟困境——飛行員劫機實屬罕見,弄出這么大陣仗的更是前所未有,這都將會從根本上動搖世人對馬來西亞國家信譽與國家治理的信心;越南瞎忙乎了一通,周邊國家都還驚魂未定……唯獨美國,以自己無可爭辯的軟、硬實力,借馬航370事件無聲地宣布:我重返亞洲了!


如果美洲發生空難,美國應該是當之無愧的帶頭老大哥;如果歐洲發生空難,法國、英國等都有很強的實力,美國也會及時介入;如果非洲發生空難,美、英、德、法等國都會馳援;如果亞洲發生空難呢?馬來西亞應該第一時間向哪個國家求助?——在過去八天搜尋的飛機和真相的過程中,美國不但展示了只有他才擁有的最尖端的搜索與救援科技,甚至連人力情報,都是這個地區任何國家都遠遠不及的:最后被證實為正確的消息有幾條不是來自美國媒體和美國的“相關人士”?


美國重返亞洲有三大支柱:一是強化美、日、韓、澳等盟國關系;二是處理好同中國的關系,所謂“新型大國關系”;三是以其軟、硬實力在亞太國家間發揮無法取代的作用。馬航370事件給美國提供了難得的機會。


當事件越來越接近恐怖劫持時,美國讓亞洲國家都看到:911離亞洲諸國也并不遙遠。如果這次是極端恐怖份子所為,將是中國在國際上遭遇的最大恐怖襲擊,無異于美國的911。美國曾多次請求亞洲(尤其是東南亞)國家對他在阿富汗的反恐予以理解與支持,都遭遇了不冷不熱,今后情況會不會有所改變?


再過幾天核安全峰會就要在荷蘭舉行了。核安全峰會是獲得諾貝爾和平獎的奧巴馬覺得實在過意不去而發起的旨在倡導核安全和打擊防范核恐怖主義的全球性峰會。2010年首屆峰會在華盛頓舉行,此次峰會主題通過加強國際合作來應對核恐怖主義威脅。但會議開成了美俄談判減少核子武器,無果而終。2012年在韓國首爾舉行的第二屆核峰會則以加強核材料和核設施安全為主題,但日本成功轉移話題,引導與會諸國更多關注朝鮮核威脅。雖然兩次會議都吸引了中國國家主席等這些重量級領導人參加,會議規格高,也很熱鬧,但回頭看,效果并不明顯。


第三屆核安全峰會將于一個星期后的2014年3月24日至25日在荷蘭海牙舉行,屆時全球將有53個國家、4個國際組織、58位領導人,以及數千名代表和記者參加,這一屆國際峰會旨在全球范圍內防止核恐怖主義。想一下就不難明白:如果恐怖份子捏一把砍刀就能殺人,喪盡天良把飛機變成武器,等他們得到核子材料或武器,會怎樣?僅僅從這個意義上說,這屆核安全峰會就不會、也不應該開成最高領導人聚聚會、握握手卻毫無實效的高峰秀。這是核安全峰會的機會,也是要借此揚名立萬的奧巴馬的機會。


馬航370撲朔迷離,真相尚未大白于天下,當務之急是搜尋飛機,救人尋真相,而不是搞一個針對美國的“陰謀論”。但災難發生時,更能看清國家實力與各國之間的博弈,中國不妨學著點,恐怖主義早不只限于中東、歐洲與紐約,已經逼近中國甚至就發生在中國境內;大國崛起絕不是龐大的軍隊與更龐大的軍事開支,而是扎扎實實的軍事高科技與先進的設備;負責任的大國需要更深地卷入到地區與國際事務中,讓世界感覺到你存在的意義與必要性。


楊恒均 2014.3.17




2015-08-23 08:53

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